There are no guarantees. There is always uncertainty.
Even when you have an unbelievable vision.
I love this clip of Jeff Bezos (scroll down). It shows his foresight about the future of retail and customer service. What stood out to me was his humility to recognize the uncertainty of who the expected winners of the ‘internet revolution’ would be.
“Long term I believe that it is very easy to predict that there are going to be lots of successful companies born of the internet. I also believe that today, where we sit, it’s very hard to predict who those companies are going to be.”
In hindsight, it’s easy to look back at Jeff Bezos and his vision to ‘know’ that Amazon would be a massive success. Even Jeff Bezos recognized the uncertainty he faced along the way.
For long term investors, it’s not about predicting the exact winners, it’s about making sure you have exposure to those winners.
As long as you’re saving enough on an ongoing basis, a long term investor can afford to own companies that will not be winners to the magnitude of Amazon.
What the long term investor cannot afford, is completely missing ‘the next Amazon’ altogether. The best way to do that is through diversification.